Market Perspectives September 2026: The Cost of Everything, Continued
In this month's update, Jonathan Burden reflects on a September in which the cost of energy, borrowing, and inflation all moved higher together - a month he describes as one where the strain of an ongoing Middle East conflict showed up somewhere everyone notices: the inflation we all feel.
Jonathan examines the renewed surge in oil prices, with Brent crude back above $106 a barrel following direct attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and a further escalation of threats to the Strait of Hormuz. He traces the familiar pattern of the conflict - a ceasefire lifts hopes, oil eases, then a fresh flashpoint sends it back up - and looks at what the first signs of a genuine negotiating track at the UN General Assembly could, and could not, be taken to mean.
On central banks, Jonathan covers the Bank of England's double decision in September: holding Bank Rate at 3.75% despite markets pricing a near one-in-three chance of a rise, while separately slowing its gilt-selling programme from £70 billion to £46 billion a year and halting long-dated sales altogether. He sets this alongside a striking global picture - the ECB, the US Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan all raising rates within days of each other in September, and considers what the reversal of Japanese capital flows could mean for demand for gilts and Treasuries going forward.
On technology, Jonathan looks at the AI safety debate in September - from the Bank of England Governor's warning to the G20, to prominent industry figures calling for a slowdown, and Washington's swift and unambiguous rejection of that call - and notes the tension this creates alongside the sector's continued earnings strength.
Closer to home, the article examines three data points on the cost of UK energy dependence: the volume of energy now imported, the pace of North Sea job losses, and the state of the country's gas storage ahead of winter - and considers how each sits within the same tightening fiscal picture as the gilt market story, ahead of the Chancellor's Autumn Budget on 28 October, with fiscal headroom already constrained.
This newsletter is intended for general information only and should not be considered personal financial advice. If you would like advice based on your own circumstances, please speak to your dedicated financial planner.
Read the September 2026 Newsletter.
